Big Daddy's Final Four Picks

With Duke gone and my pool in shambles, I really have no interest left in the tournament, but that doesn't mean I won't be making my picks.

I thought long and hard (mostly hard) and if there's one thing the tournament has taught us, always, always respect history!

SEMI-FINALS

#4 Louisville vs. #1 Illinois
The key to any great title run is tragedy...you need at least one player who's life has just sucked so much, it's too sad even for Oprah! In this final four, nobody's sob story comes remotely close to topping Taquan Dean of Louisville. He had no father; he found his mom dead in her bedroom when he was six, after she had taken the wrong medication. He and his sister moved in with his grandparents, and they both were dead before he turned ten; then he moved in with his uncle...guess what, dead. Does this bring you back to Maryland's title run? The Terps had Juan Dixon, who lost both his parents to aids!! And if Dean's story doesn't have enough death for you, his teammate, Francisco Garcia. His brother Hector was gunned down in the Bronx. You can't spell 'Title Game' without D.E.A.T.H., well, actually you can't spell 'Title Game' with Tit, but that's not the point. Tradegy equals at least one victory in the final four, so CBS can do all those sappy stories leading up to Monday's title game.
WINNER: Louisville Cardinals

#5 Michigan St. vs. #1 North Carolina
If you don't buy the tragedy angle, here's one game with all kinds of history to talk about. First you have North Carolina, loaded with 30-Future NBA'ers (so I hear). What happens to teams who have an entire roster of NBA talent? They lose! Actually, history tells us that NBA talent teams don't win back-to-back years. Last year's NBA Huskies won it all...sorry Tar Heels. Now if that doesn't tickle your ball sack, you also have the history of the little white guy on the bench, Roy Williams; the greatest active coach never to win it all. He's not going to win his first title until he's like 75, a year from retirement with a "less-talented, but all-heart" team.

Not buying this so far...try this one out. Michigan St. beat Duke, right? No big deal, right? Wrong! You're so wrong, you don't even deserve to read the rest of this posting...but please do, it makes me feel needed. Now, over the last seven years, six teams have won the title not named Duke. Of those six years, what's the one thing all those title games had in common? Each game featured the team that beat Duke! Of those six teams, five of them won the title! Don't you see? You beat Duke at any point in the Big Dance and you're going to win the title! Not convinced? Over the past nineteen years, Duke has been in the tournament 18 times. Of those eighteen, Duke has won three titles. Out of the other fifteen tournaments, the team that beat Duke made it to the final game 12 times!!! That's 12 out of 15! The three teams that didn't make it to the title game are the three teams that upset Duke in one of the first two rounds, which means, if you beat Duke after the first two rounds, you have a %100 percent chance of going to the title game!!! Not bad.
WINNER: Michigan State Spartans

TITLE GAME
#4 Louisville vs. #5 Michigan State
Now when it comes to the title game, you again have to look at the history. Do you go with the 'tragedy' effect or do you simply go with the numbers? Well, tragedy can only get you so far. Not everyone can be Juan Dixon. There's only one Juan Dixon and that Juan Dixon plays for the Washington Wizards.
So let's go back to those numbers...up top I explained to you the "Duke" theory and I left off at the twelve teams that have beaten Duke after the first two rounds of the tournament, made it to the title game. Now out of those twelve, ten-count 'em-ten of those teams have won the title! Now I like those odds!

2005 NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: Michigan State Spartans